Geographic Information System (GIS) is one of the most important tools to prepare FOREST management plan and, in general, as a tool for management, sustainable logging and future planning based on the derived statistical data from FORESTed regions. The purpose of this study was spatial SIMULATION of trees in FOREST to have in hand an example of an uneven aged FOREST (simulated FOREST). By means of the simulated FOREST, it is possible to test different statistical methods and various management activities before they are carried out in real world. The study area, Gorazbon, is a district of Kheyrud research-educational FOREST, with 1001 hectares area located in East of Nowshahr city. The inventory was implemented using systematic random sampling.Afterwards, trees were randomly distributed within the compartments of this district, using the results of full callipering inventory with Arc GIS 9.3 software and FOREST was simulated. In this stage, the inventory process was implemented in simulated FOREST similar to the inventory of real FOREST. These results were compared with the results of the ground inventory, and nostatistically significant difference was found in any of repetitions. Consequently, it can infer that the simulated FOREST is remarkably applied to the FOREST inventory implementations. Furthermore, it is a functional tool to provide FOREST management plans of Kheyrud FOREST.To say in other words, this makes possible to test different methods of FOREST inventory and also type and dimensions of plot and inventory net unquestionably.

Project time and cost are one of the issues and challenges that employers and contractors are facing whit them especially in the FOREST area. One of the most effective tools that used in prediction and risk analysis is Monte Carlo analysis that Based on the production of random numbers, the number of single components of a set is computed and find out their effect on the whole set. In the traditional approach to project control that still dominates in most national projects, estimating the probable time and budget of the project is still unpredictable to managers and experts. In this work, we tried to present a model for considering the probability and risk in estimating the probability of completion of the project by given time and cost of project termination in a FOREST area using a case study and software capabilities (Primavera Pertmaster). The results of the probability distribution revealed that the probability of reaching the predicted budget was approximately 13% according to the Monte Carlo SIMULATION. However, the difference between the maximum and minimum values varies from 39 to 650 million IRR, which results in a high risk of the operation of the land operations, which indicates the high risk of the earthwork operation. The real cost of earthwork (570 million IRR) in the study area at the cost allocation chart is estimated at 90%, which also confirms the riskiness of the road earthwork project. Finally, the Monte Carlo SIMULATION method, with the successful prediction of the risk of earthwork operation project, showed that there is an acceptable way for contractors and FOREST road designers to deal with the negative aspects of the project. The results of this research can be used as a guide to better management of FOREST for future operations.

1-Introduction The issue of FOREST depletion in the north of Iran has always been a subject of debate, especially in recent years, and the need for sound planning and proper management has been increasingly emphasized. In order to determine the optimal FOREST management strategy in northern Iran under uncertainty, this study has attempted to estimate FOREST growth model, ARIMA model for predicting wood price, Harvesting Cost Model and a Dynamic Planning Model, Management Strategies in Three Scenarios, Maximizing Net Present Value, Maximizing timber harvesting and maximizing growing stock. It is worth noting that the present study aims at selecting different management strategies in order to determine optimal harvesting strategy and evaluation of sustainability of simulated strategies is a new step in choosing appropriate management policy in northern FORESTs. 2-Materials and Methode In order to simulate FOREST management strategies, firstly it needs to estimate the price equation, the growth equation, the cost equation, and the net present value equation. ARMA models are a combination of Autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) variables. This model was applied to predict timber price and estimate price equation. The quadratic cost equation with intercept is assumed to be the function of the harvest cost and the squared of the harvest variable. In order to estimate the FOREST increment equation, we used a logistic growth model. This model, despite the low observations, shows well the relationship between growing stock and growth rate, and theoretically and mathematically describes the model well. Given the equation of price, cost equation, growth equation and net present value equation, we evaluated the defined strategies in the dynamic programming model using GAMS software. After simulating strategies to maximize timber harvest, maximize net present value, and maximize FOREST timber inventory, a hierarchical analysis model was used to evaluate the sustainability of FOREST resources in each strategy. 3-Results and discussion In the strategy of maximizing harvest, there was an almost decreasing trend for the growth variable, with a slight decrease, and some variations were observed for the harvest variable. Changes in harvest rate per hectare and growth rate per hectare follow each other in this strategy, which means that the harvest rate should be determined by the rate of growth per hectare. In the strategy of maximizing the net present value, the growth rate is at an acceptable level and therefore the FOREST is not damaged. By applying this strategy, the harvest rate will increase in the early years and then continue to be somewhat steady until the end of the period. This means that in this case, the situation of the stakeholders will improve economically, which is one of the goals of sustainability. In the second strategy Harvest rate follows the growth rate in this strategy, and there is a correlation between harvest rate per hectare and stock availability per hectare. In the third strategy of maximizing FOREST stock, the amount of growth was acceptable. Harvesting variable during the period of study has an increasing trend. The stock per hectare increased at the beginning of the study period and has been somewhat steady since the first few years. It is remarkable that in this strategy, which aimed to maximize the amount of growing stock per hectare, the growth rate was almost acceptable and the harvest rate per hectare followed the pattern of stock availability per hectare. 4-Suggestion In general, it is suggested that dynamic planning methods be used in FOREST management, especially those of commercial and economic importance in the northern FORESTs, to achieve appropriate management strategies. As the results showed, economic and environmental objectives will be achieved simultaneously with dynamic planning and proper management of FOREST resources.

Introduction: Musculoskeletal problems are the common complaints of patients refer to internal medicine clinics and the pain is the most important of them. There are different physiotherapy methods for reduction of pain and action potential SIMULATION therapy (APS therapy) is one of newest methods. The aim of this study was to determine reduction of pain with APS therapy. Materials & Methods: In 47 patients with different musculoskeletal pain APS therapy performed in 6 days each for 16 minutes and with current of 0.7-1.2 mA. Pain (VAS), Global functional status (ACR) and relief of pain (VAS) before and after study compared.Results: APS therapy reduced pain (p<0.001) and increased Global functional status (p<0.001) and increased relief of pain (p<0.005) but there was not any correlation between this reduction of pain with APS therapy and educational status and past history of physiotherapy and duration of illness in these patients.Conclusion: APS therapy is a useful physiotherapy modality for reduction of pain in musculoskeletal problems.

The quality parameters of the river, including electrical conductivity, are highly dependent on changes in flow rate. Adding the flow rate parameter to the SIMULATION of this parameter can increase the certainty of the SIMULATION results. For this reason, in this study, random FOREST, CARMA and CARMA-GARCH models were used to model the electrical conductivity values in Gerdyaghoub, Kutar and Bitas stations in Mahabadchai basin, taking into account the flow rates. In this regard, the monthly values of electrical conductivity and flow discharge in the statistical period 1986-2018 were used. The results were analyzed using Nash-Sutcliffe statistics, root mean square error and violin plot. The results of evaluation the root mean square error and Nash-Sutcliffe statistics showed that the SIMULATION results of CARMA-GARCH model compared to CARMA model in Bitas and Kuter stations as well as the training step in Gerdyaghoub station were improved. The results showed that the combination of nonlinear and linear models could improve the modeling error in three stations, Gerdyaghoub, Kotar and Bitas in the training step of 9.56, 9.70 and 21.68 percent. By examining the violin plots, the results showed acceptable accuracy and performance of CARMA and CARMA-GARCH models compared to the random FOREST model. In general, the results showed that time series models have higher accuracy in bivariate simulating of electrical conductivity values in the study area.

In this study, the sediment yield of FOREST roads of Darabkola watershed was investigated and estimated using WARSEM and SEDMODEL. Rainfall simulator was applied to measure the sediment of abovementioned roads directly. In order to apply WARSEM and SEDMODEL models, field operations for measurement of different parameters including road length and width, height and coverage of road cut-slope, road longitudinal slope, shape and configuration of the road, road surface, and etc. were carried out in 63 different segments of the path of FOREST roads in the study area as 11979 meters long. Then sediment yield of roads was measured by rainfall simulator with nozzle of 3 meters high and plot of 2 square meters. Results of the WARSEM and SEDMODL models and rainfall SIMULATION showed that sediment yield of FOREST roads are equal to 9.918, 5.109, and 4.141 kg/m2/year, respectively. Results also showed that there was no significant difference between sediment yield of rainfall SIMULATION and SEDMODEL at significance level of %95. It was also revealed that SEDMODL is more suitable for estimating sediment yield of FOREST road with values of RD, MD, BIAS, RE and RMSE equal to 21.42, 4.54, 0.04, 17.59 and 0.71, respectively.

In this research, the impacts of FOREST operation and road construction on runoff and sediment yield were investigated in Zailakirood Basin. As there was only one hydrometric station and sediment measurement at the outlet of the basin, estimation of runoff and sediment from different parts of the Basin was not possible which limits our understanding of the effective factors. We used Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT2012) and SWAT-CUP and SUFI-2 algorithm to model the monthly runoff and sediment yield at the outlet of the Basin. The values of the objective function, NS, and the coefficient of determination, R 2, for runoff were 0. 72 and 0. 88, respectively, for calibration and 0. 83 and 0. 89 for validation. For sediment yield, we obtained R 2 0. 51 and 0. 56 for calibration and 0. 66 and 0. 73 for validation, respectively. Overall, we concluded that the SWAT model performance and capabilities were acceptable for simulating the monthly runoff and sediment yield in the Zailakirood Basin. Based on the results of sensitivity analysis for runoff, SOL_BD and CH_N2 were determined as the most sensitive parameters, whereas CH_N2 and CN2 were identified as the most sensitive parameters for sediment yield. It can be concluded that FOREST harvesting reduced the FOREST canopy and compact the soil of the skidding path, decreased the permeability and capacity of soil water storage, and increased the speed of runoff into rivers. Road construction changed the direction of runoffs to the rivers, increasing the speed of surface runoff and soil erosion. Overall, deFORESTation resulted in increases in the peak flows and sediment yield.